The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) finds that student performance in the Leaving Certificate hinges more on the schools they attend than the neighbourhoods they live in. The research signals a shift toward school-level solutions, with current DEIS supports falling short and family background shaping outcomes, raising the prospect that leaving certificate results will mirror institutional resources unless policies change.
ESRI researchers Emer Smyth and Merike Darmody map school and area effects
In The impact of school and neighbourhood social mix on Leaving Certificate performance, ESRI authors Emer Smyth and Merike Darmody separate the influence of schools from neighbourhoods and identify the school a student attends as the stronger driver of exam results. They point to Ireland’s wider choice of second-level schools as a feature that allows more precise estimates of school and neighbourhood effects. Neighbourhood characteristics still matter, with lower grades in areas facing higher socioeconomic disadvantage and more neighbourhood disorder. The study also describes cumulative effects, with both primary and second-level schools shaping outcomes.
DEIS, fee-paying, and socially mixed schools: divergent outcomes in Ireland
The pattern across school types is clear in the ESRI findings. Students in DEIS schools post lower grades even when researchers account for social background, while students in socially mixed schools achieve higher marks, and those in fee-paying schools record higher grades again. The authors call for greater State support for the most disadvantaged schools, and they state that current DEIS resources do not close the outcome gap for the cohort they examined. That contrast across DEIS, socially mixed, and fee-paying settings positions the school’s social mix as a visible lever on leaving certificate performance.
Family background deepens these disparities. The study highlights a gap of over 100 Leaving Certificate points between children of graduate mothers and children whose mothers have Junior Cycle education or less. Beyond maternal education, the ESRI identifies social class, financial strain, and family type as independent influences on results. Together, these factors push and pull student attainment in measurable ways, even after adjusting for other aspects of background, and they interact with school and neighbourhood contexts to shape a young person’s final grades.
Leaving Certificate trajectory: school-level supports and two policy scenarios
The direction of travel implied by the ESRI evidence tilts toward targeted, school-level intervention. The authors find that additional supports provided through the DEIS programme do not appear sufficient to bridge the gap for this cohort. They add that schools serving the most deprived communities may require further resources, with the findings contributing to a case for extra measures that could form the basis of a Deis plus designation. Combined with the ability in Ireland to estimate school versus neighbourhood effects more precisely, the next phase of reform is likely to focus on school contexts rather than area labels alone.
- If current dynamics continue: DEIS schools may keep trailing socially mixed and fee-paying schools, and the social mix of a school would remain a strong predictor of leaving certificate outcomes, even after accounting for family background.
- Should additional supports expand for the most deprived communities: A Deis plus designation or comparable targeted measures could narrow gaps tied to school social mix and reduce the over-100-point spread linked to maternal education, especially where both primary and second-level supports align.
The ESRI report stands as the present benchmark. The research signals the need for stronger support in the most disadvantaged schools but does not specify a timetable for new measures or a Deis plus rollout. For now, the clearest yardsticks are the over-100-point gap tied to maternal education, the consistent advantage in fee-paying and socially mixed schools, and the documented role of neighbourhood disadvantage and disorder. Any policy change that addresses these specific drivers will offer the next concrete sign of whether the Leaving Certificate is becoming less dependent on a student’s school context.
