Gasoline prices in the United States jumped nearly 27 cents in a week to $3. 25 a gallon, a move that has alarmed the White House as the US-Israel war with Iran threatens global oil supplies. Wednesday at 10: 15 a. m. ET — the oil price today spike could lift retail pump averages toward $3. 40 and raise household fuel costs nationwide.
Oil Price Today Prompts Gas Buddy Forecast of $3. 40 Average
If oil price today holds at current levels, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, expects retail gasoline prices could rise another 20 to 25 cents a gallon, which would push the nationwide average to about $3. 40. That projection uses current wholesale trends and reflects the recent nearly 27-cent weekly jump that moved the national average to $3. 25 a gallon.
White House Reacts After Brent Crude Passes $90 and Strait Disruption
After the United States announced insurance guarantees and naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices were pulled off their peaks; later, Brent crude passed $90 a barrel after a presidential comment, lifting global benchmarks. The closure of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has had outsized market effects because roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows through that shipping lane.
EIA Forecast of 13. 6m Barrels Highlights U. S. Production Cushion
The US Energy Information Administration forecasts near-record U. S. crude production of about 13. 6 million barrels per day in 2026, a volume that helps insulate American consumers from global supply shocks. Saudi Arabia is listed at about 9. 87 million barrels per day, while Iran accounts for roughly 3% of global oil supplies, figures that frame how much market influence each producer currently holds.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, says U. S. oil prices would need to reach approximately $125 a barrel — a level that he estimates could push gasoline to about $4. 25 a gallon — before inflicting measurable damage on the economy. Brusuelas projects that a $125-per-barrel environment could reduce U. S. GDP by at least 0. 8% and lift consumer inflation to near 4%; he also notes that every $10 increase per barrel can trim overall growth by about 0. 1% and raise price levels by 0. 2%.
Higher crude prices have already flowed to pump prices: retail averages hit $3. 25 a gallon after the recent surge, and Patrick De Haan’s 20-to-25-cent scenario would raise that average to roughly $3. 40. The last episode of gas-driven consumer pullback occurred in June 2022, when U. S. gasoline averaged $5. 01 a gallon following global supply shocks tied to geopolitical conflict.
Weekly retail gasoline data scheduled for release at 10: 00 a. m. ET will provide the next clear read on how wholesale oil moves are affecting pump prices and consumer spending patterns.
