Marwan Rahiki will face Harry Hardwick at UFC Vegas 114 on March 14, 2026, entering the bout as the betting favorite. The line has Rahiki coming in at -275 while Hardwick is coming in at +235.
Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick: Odds, Records and Recent Form
Rahiki, nicknamed “Freaky, ” is unbeaten with a 7-0-0 professional record. The 23-year-old fights at 145 lbs, stands 5’8″ and has a 72″ arm span. Hardwick, nicknamed “Houdini, ” is 13-4-1, also 5’8″ and listed at 145 lbs with a 71″ reach; he fights from a switch stance and is 31 years old. The betting line shows Rahiki as the heavy favorite at -275 to Hardwick’s +235.
In their most recent outings, Rahiki defeated Ananias Mulumba by punch to the head in round 2. In that fight Rahiki landed 46 of 98 total strikes and 43 of 91 significant strikes (47%), with 27 of 67 significant strikes to the head. Mulumba landed 55 of 115 total strikes and 44 of 100 significant strikes (44%). Hardwick’s last fight ended in a loss to Kaue Fernandes by a kick to the leg in round 1. Hardwick landed 8 of 23 total strikes and 8 of 23 significant strikes (34%), while Fernandes landed 24 of 40 significant strikes in that bout.
How They Match Up: Striking Output, Accuracy And Grappling
Striking metrics favor Rahiki in volume and accuracy. Rahiki lands 5. 96 significant strikes per minute and connects at a 47% rate, while Hardwick lands 2. 39 significant strikes per minute at a 34% clip. Defensively, Rahiki takes 6. 10 significant strikes per minute and is credited with stopping 56% of opponents’ significant strikes; Hardwick takes 7. 16 significant strikes per minute and stops 40% of those aimed at him.
On the mat, Rahiki averages 1. 20 takedowns per three rounds, converting on 15% of his attempts and defending 85% of takedown attempts against him. Hardwick also records a 15% takedown success rate on his attempts and has a 15% takedown defense rate. Submission aggression is a differentiator: Rahiki goes for 2. 1 submissions per 15 minutes while Hardwick attempts 0. 3 per 15 minutes.
Key Questions And What To Watch At UFC Vegas 114
Watch whether Rahiki’s higher output and submission activity can overwhelm Hardwick’s experience and physical durability. Rahiki’s accuracy and distance striking were prominent in his last win, where 93% of his significant strikes landed at distance. Hardwick’s previous loss featured effective long-range striking by his opponent and a first-round finish, highlighting a vulnerability to decisive strikes delivered from distance.
The fight’s outcome will likely hinge on Rahiki’s ability to sustain pressure and convert grappling chances against a more experienced opponent, and whether Hardwick can use experience and switch-stance versatility to disrupt Rahiki’s rhythm. With the current odds favoring Rahiki at -275, the matchup presents a contrast of an undefeated, high-output striker against a veteran with finishing experience.
Expect this bout to attract attention on the March 14 fight card, with bettors and viewers focusing on finishing potential, distance striking efficiency, and whether takedown defence holds up under pressure.
