Tesla’s core business shows concrete weakness: deliveries fell to 1. 63 million cars in 2025 after 1. 79 million in 2024, and automotive revenue and earnings per share plunged. This mix of sliding vehicle sales and a strategic pivot toward Cybercab and Optimus points the Tesla share price toward two clear possible trajectories depending on deliveries, earnings and regulatory progress.
Tesla Deliveries and Financials: 2024 and 2025 Performance
Tesla delivered 1. 79 million EVs in 2024, a 1% decline from the prior year, then saw deliveries drop to 1. 63 million in 2025, a 9% year-over-year fall. That delivery decline dragged 2025 automotive revenue down by 10% and contributed to a 47% plunge in earnings per share. Passenger EVs still account for 73% of the company’s total revenue, while demand in that segment continues to decline.
| Metric | Value (context) |
|---|---|
| Deliveries, 2024 | 1. 79 million (1% decline) |
| Deliveries, 2025 | 1. 63 million (9% decline) |
| Automotive revenue change, 2025 | -10% |
| Earnings per share change, 2025 | -47% |
Elon Musk, Cybercab, Optimus and BYD: The Visible Drivers
Elon Musk is shifting emphasis away from a price-competitive EV strategy toward autonomous vehicles and robotics. He unveiled the Cybercab robotaxi last year; the vehicle will use Tesla’s full-self-driving software to haul passengers and small commercial loads. Tesla plans to ramp up production of Optimus humanoid robots over the next couple of years in its Fremont, California factory. Still, Tesla faces intensifying competitive pressure from BYD, which outsold Tesla globally in 2025 for the first time and sells an entry-level EV under $27, 000 in Europe versus the Model 3 starting at over $40, 000.
Regulatory and approval constraints matter here: Tesla’s full-self-driving technology is approved for unsupervised use only in Austin, Texas right now. A broader rollout will require significant time because of strict regulations, and the Cybercab—expected to enter mass production this year—could be grounded before it reaches roads without wider FSD approval.
Tesla Share Price: If deliveries keep sliding — and if autonomous plans clear regulators
If deliveries continue to fall and the automotive revenue and EPS trends remain negative, then the valuation pressure on the company will increase. The context includes a direct prediction that the company could drop out of the U. S. $1 trillion club before the end of 2026. That scenario links falling unit sales, a 10% automotive revenue decline in 2025, and a 47% EPS plunge to a weaker Tesla share price if no offsetting new revenue stream arrives.
Should broader FSD approval occur and Cybercab move into large-scale operation, then Tesla could develop a very high-margin, 24/7 revenue stream from a ride-hailing network built on robotaxis. The context cites an estimate from Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management that robotaxis could generate $34 trillion in enterprise value by 2030, which would materially alter the company’s business mix away from 73% passenger-EV revenue and thus support the Tesla share price despite near-term EV weakness.
Next confirmed milestone: the Cybercab is expected to enter mass production this year. What the context does not resolve is whether regulators will expand full-self-driving approval beyond Austin, Texas or whether mass production will translate into immediate road operations. Market reaction and valuation will pivot on those two specific outcomes: confirmed mass deployment of Cybercab or broader FSD approval beyond Austin.
