Two developments involving nathan mackinnon frame a central question for the Avalanche: how does a single-game disciplinary episode — an ejection after barreling into Edmonton goalie Connor Ingram — compare with his season-long claim to being the NHL’s top even-strength player and a runaway Hart Trophy projection? This piece measures immediate game damage against sustained on-ice value.
Nathan Mackinnon and the Connor Ingram collision: the immediate game impact
In Tuesday’s game the Avalanche lost Nathan MacKinnon to a five-minute major for goalie interference after he barreled into Connor Ingram while on the power play. Ingram was cut and had to leave; Tristan Jarry entered for Edmonton. At the time of the penalty Colorado trailed 3-2, and the team faced 4: 05 of shorthanded play once the Connor Murphy penalty expired. Without MacKinnon, the game plan shifted: the team would likely rely on Nazem Kadri to move to center. Those facts show a clear, concrete short-term cost tied to the ejection.
Avalanche even-strength engine led by Nathan MacKinnon: 100-37 margin and scoring milestones
Nathan MacKinnon’s season tells a different story of sustained value. When he set up Gabe Landeskog for a goal that marked a franchise milestone, he also collected his 100th point of the season in his 59th game — his fourth straight 100-plus campaign. Colorado has outscored opponents 100-37 at even strength with MacKinnon on the ice, a gap far ahead of the next Avalanche players (Cale Makar at 85, Martin Necas at 82) and well above most non-Colorado comparators. That level of even-strength dominance is the core argument for his Hart Trophy projection and for construing his on-ice presence as game-deciding over an entire season.
Natalie of projections, Nazem Kadri shifts and power-play vulnerability that ties both events
Season projections and single-game events converge when assessing team outcomes. Nathan MacKinnon is projected to win the Hart Trophy in a landslide, and season pacing data shows prolific totals: on one account he is on pace for 57 goals and 82 assists, and through 61 games he had 43 goals and 61 assists, with nine goals and 24 assists coming on the power play. Yet the Avalanche’s power play sits 31st at 15. 8% (32 of 203), a weakness noted as a postseason concern. The ejection forced a midgame lineup adjustment to Nazem Kadri and created a prolonged kill; the season-long power-play struggles and the ejection both reduce available advantages in close games. If MacKinnon’s even-strength production continues, it offsets many single-game disruptions. Still, repeated majors or an inability to bolster the power play would magnify the cost of any absence.
Comparing the two sides by the same criteria — impact on immediate game outcomes, contribution to season-long team margin, and influence on MVP voting — highlights a verdict: the season-long even-strength dominance outweighs an isolated ejection in terms of overall value, but the ejection exposes a measurable short-term vulnerability that becomes meaningful when special teams are weak. For now, nathan mackinnon’s on-ice scoring and the Avalanche’s 100-37 even-strength edge establish him as overwhelmingly valuable; the ejection is a contained risk rather than a season-defining flaw.
What will test this finding is a concrete, quantifiable run of games: MacKinnon has 22 games still to play this season. If he maintains his even-strength scoring and avoids further five-minute majors, the comparison suggests Colorado’s season trajectory and his Hart projection will remain intact. If repeat penalties or special-teams failures persist, then the short-term costs exemplified by the Connor Ingram collision will matter far more to postseason outcomes.
