Just like that, the field has been cut to four and the nbl finals are upon us. The postseason has arrived, and the semifinals set the race toward the 2026 NBL Championship into its most unforgiving stretch — two wins can separate jubilation from an otherwise accomplished season.
What will decide the Nbl Finals matchups?
At one end sit the Sydney Kings, built on a late-season surge that landed them the No. 1 seed. Kendric Davis put together what the coverage describes as an MVP-level season, averaging 24. 4 points and 6. 7 assists per game, operating under Coach Brian Goorjian, now a seven-time Coach of the Year, who guided the Kings to the league’s top offence and defence. That combination — star scoring and a defensive identity — compressed into a short series becomes a clear advantage.
Opposing them, the Perth Wildcats arrive from a different road. Described as undermanned but battle-tested after play-in victories, Perth’s resilience centers on the two-way play of Kristian Doolittle and the belief of a compact roster. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr., a Perth Wildcats player, said bluntly after a key win, “I think we’re the three best in the league. ” It is the kind of confidence that can matter in a best-of-three where momentum flips overnight.
“We have a pride in our defensive ability, ” Xavier Cooks, of the Sydney Kings, said — a short, inward-facing line that underlines the Kings’ emphasis on pressure. The Kings have the personnel to threaten full-court ball pressure, and names such as Makuach Maluach, Torrey Craig and Jaylin Galloway were flagged as likely to apply up-the-floor pressure, with others ready to plug gaps and make life difficult for ball-carriers.
Can a rested Cotton and Adelaide’s supporting cast withstand Phoenix pressure?
The other semi pairs the Adelaide 36ers — led by six-time MVP Bryce Cotton — against the South East Melbourne Phoenix. Bryce Cotton is the defining figure for Adelaide this year: his season averages have been described as 25. 7 points and 7. 6 assists, along with steals and rebounds and efficient shooting splits. Outside Cotton, the 36ers’ most reliable performer has been Zylan Cheatham, averaging double figures in points and rebounds with contributions across the stat sheet.
Yet the narrative is not solely about one superstar. Head coach Mike Wells, identified in the coverage as needing his frontcourt to deliver, has labelled his collection of bigs the “three best bigs in the league. ” That frontcourt is presented as critical to creating space for Cotton and to counter a Phoenix side that tests teams with tempo and full-court pressure. The Phoenix’s pace forces opponents into quick decisions; Adelaide’s path, the analysis suggests, is to break that pressure and get into clean half-court sets where Cotton and efficient shooters can operate.
Critics and commentators raised questions about Adelaide’s depth and consistency beyond Cotton. Names such as Isaac Humphries, Dejan Vasiljevic, John Jenkins, Flynn Cameron and Nick Rakocevic were pointed to as figures whose consistency will determine whether the 36ers can move past a Phoenix side that has been lauded for its speed and disruptive style.
On the Perth front, the Wildcats’ undermanned tag belies the cohesion coaches and players hope will carry them. Their path through the play-in tournament is referenced as making them battle-tested — a short series heightens the value of that recent, high-pressure experience.
For the Kings, the narrative is blunt: a team with the league’s top offence and defence, a coach with repeated recognition, and a core on a long winning streak presents a heavy favorite. For underdogs, the recipe is pressure, disruption, and an ability to force the game into a smaller sample size where confidence and recent form can override season-long metrics.
Voices around the semifinal matchups range from coachly prescriptions to player conviction. Damon Lowery, identified as an NBL champion, is among those who have publicly predicted outcomes, and that chorus frames the human stakes: experience, belief, and the capacity of supporting casts to stand up to elite individual performances.
The nbl finals will be decided in compressed moments: pressuring ball-handlers, creating match-up problems inside, and whether secondary scorers can emerge when a superstar is contained. Coaches and players already know those checkpoints; now they must execute them under the spotlight.
Back where we began, with the field trimmed to four and the semifinals looming, the human texture of these series is as vivid as the statistics driving the matchups. The next stops in this championship race will answer whether Perth’s grit can topple a dominant Kings machine, and whether a rested Bryce Cotton, propped by reliable frontcourt play, can steer Adelaide through the speed and pressure of the Phoenix — questions that will be resolved one possession at a time in the nbl finals.
